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The Packers' season-long numbers: 14th in defensive efficiency, 26th against the run.ĭon't be surprised if Sean McVay comes out of the bye and the Rams have a few wrinkles in the offense - and for Odell Beckham. The Packers rank 28th defending third down, but a few impressive weeks with a beat-up defense had people believing in this unit. Minnesota was a hyper-efficient 9-for-13 on third down. The injuries finally caught up with them last week, as the Vikings averaged 6.2 yards per play and had 408 yards. Matthew Stafford played poorly in the first half in both of those outings, with a pick-6 in each. LA comes into this game off two straight losses. The Rams have taken money all week, and the line has moved from Packers -2 to Rams -1. PICK: Bucs (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points Yes, Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS on the road this season with three outright losses, but it's a tiny sample size, and this number is an overreaction to Indy's win over Buffalo. The Colts rank 27th in pass defense in the middle of the field Tom Brady historically has picked apart offenses over the middle, and this season, he has a 138.2 passer rating on passes of 10 or fewer yards over the middle. I believe Tampa's offense will succeed against a slightly overrated defense, and the market agrees, as the total has ticked up from 52 to 53.
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It might be worth taking a gander at Taylor receiving props. As formidable as Tampa's linebackers are, they rank just 27th in defending running backs in the passing game. If the Colts can't run on the Tampa defense, it becomes a Wentz game. Wentz hasn't topped 275 yards passing in any other game and threw for just 106 (!) against the Bills last week while Indy scored 41 points. He had his highest QB rating of the season and passed for 402 yards against Baltimore. Taylor fared well against Miami and Houston - as many have - but without Nelson in Week 5, the Colts had to change their approach. Nelson was injured early in Week 3 against Tennessee, and Taylor was held to 64 yards on the ground. The health of Quenton Nelson - the All-Pro guard for the Colts - has compounded matters as it is possible he'll miss this week.
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Vita Vea is expected to return for Tampa Bay, which would be enormous in stopping the league's top running back, Jonathan Taylor. And then injury reports begin to trickle out, and all of a sudden, it looks like the Bucs could dominate the trenches. With all that said, let's get to the winners, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.Įarly in the week, the Colts were a fashionable pick. Who can do that Thanksgiving week with everything else going on?īetween a revenge game ( Giants!), look-ahead spot ( Patriots!) and teams plagued by offensive line injuries ( Packers! Colts!), I'm doing my best not to let anything fall through the cracks - while also hanging out with my family. Traveling to see family or vice versa, and all of this took me off my gambling game, as I'm routine-oriented.ĭuring the early portion of the NFL season, you get into a groove with checking injury reports, reading beat writers, and going through a day-by-day process of breaking down the games. I'd devour college basketball tournaments, college football rivalries, the NFL, and of course, all of the food.Īs I got older, along came marriage, children and familial responsibilities. I used to love coming home from college and having an entire week to do nothing. After back-to-back 3-1 weeks, it's confession time: Thanksgiving week has always been an Achilles' heel of mine.